Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  15.2  15.8  14.7  13.9  15.0  15.3  14.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  23.0  24.0  23.0  17.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  22.0  48.0  25.0  46.0  47.0  26.0  36.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.5  15.2  15.8  14.7  13.9  15.0  15.3  14.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        8.5%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       43.8%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       27.7%       20.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%       27.7%       19.2%
 40kt / 24h       10.8%       12.8%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h       20.9%       50.2%       35.6%
 55kt / 36h       13.3%       31.2%       22.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       31.4%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%       13.2%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.0%       19.8%       13.9%