Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.0  14.7  16.2  15.6  12.5  13.5  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  23.0  25.0  24.0  18.0  11.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  60.0  35.0  33.0   8.0  29.0  28.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  16.0  14.7  16.2  15.6  12.5  13.5  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.9%       28.5%       28.2%
 25kt / 24h       49.9%       69.7%       59.8%
 30kt / 24h       39.9%       64.4%       52.2%
 35kt / 24h       39.9%       64.4%       52.2%
 40kt / 24h       39.9%       41.2%       40.5%
 45kt / 36h       35.5%       69.4%       52.4%
 55kt / 36h       25.1%       57.1%       41.1%
 55kt / 48h       23.6%       44.6%       34.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%       21.8%       15.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%       18.9%       11.6%