Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  16.0  17.5  17.1  17.7  18.4  21.5  19.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  20.0  13.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 105.1  98.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  48.0  25.0   2.0  -4.0  24.0  10.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.1  16.0  17.5  17.1  17.7  18.4  21.5  19.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        6.7%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       14.4%       29.9%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       17.9%       14.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.8%       17.9%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        8.9%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.6%       21.0%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%        8.9%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%       10.6%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%