Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  18.5  16.5  18.1  19.9  21.1  17.9  13.8  F  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  16.0  10.0   9.0  11.0  12.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 102.3  95.7  87.4  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  44.0   8.0  15.0  18.0  -5.0   8.0 -18.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.3  18.5  16.5  18.1  19.9  21.1  17.9  13.8  F  N  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%       10.5%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       38.5%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       29.5%       21.6%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       29.5%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       14.0%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       22.2%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       10.3%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        9.5%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%