Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  15.2  17.4  17.7  18.7  18.2  13.0  14.4  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  10.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  11.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.0  97.3  90.7  90.7  92.9  90.7  86.5  80.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  14.0  22.0  36.0   0.0  13.0  -7.0 -10.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  15.2  17.4  17.7  18.7  18.2  13.0  14.4  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.8%       25.8%       24.3%
 25kt / 24h       35.3%       53.5%       44.4%
 30kt / 24h       24.1%       51.8%       37.9%
 35kt / 24h       24.1%       51.8%       37.9%
 40kt / 24h       16.7%       24.9%       20.8%
 45kt / 36h       17.0%       39.1%       28.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.2%       25.7%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%       15.7%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        5.6%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%