Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.2  18.6  19.9  18.4  13.9  15.8  18.9  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   8.0   8.0  10.0  10.0  10.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.3  87.9  83.6  83.6  85.7  81.5  77.4  69.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  32.0  31.0 -22.0  -7.0   0.0 -15.0 -14.0  U  N  N VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.7  17.2  18.6  19.9  18.4  13.9  15.8  18.9  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.4%       18.3%       19.9%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       37.4%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       20.0%       32.7%       26.4%
 35kt / 24h       20.0%       32.7%       26.4%
 40kt / 24h       13.2%       14.7%       13.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       23.5%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%       12.9%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        7.1%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%