Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  19.2  17.9  14.0  17.9  20.7  20.9  19.1  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0  10.0  10.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.7  46.5  48.6  48.6  42.4  34.8  27.7  19.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  -5.0   0.0  11.0  -2.0   7.0  19.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.9  19.2  17.9  14.0  17.9  20.7  20.9  19.1  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.4%        8.0%       18.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       10.9%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.5%        7.3%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h       12.5%        7.3%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h       12.5%        2.5%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%