Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  17.5  14.2  17.0  19.5  18.9  16.4  18.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   9.0   9.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.6  38.6  38.6  36.5  28.5  17.7   9.6   0.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  24.0   0.0  -5.0   1.0  21.0   1.0 -31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.5  17.5  14.2  17.0  19.5  18.9  16.4  18.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.0%        7.3%       16.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%        8.0%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%        3.6%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%