Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.3  17.0  17.4  19.2  18.1  17.9  18.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.6  38.6  34.4  28.5  19.4  11.1   2.2  -3.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0 -13.0 -13.0  -7.0   2.0   9.0  -7.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  14.3  17.0  17.4  19.2  18.1  17.9  18.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        3.4%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        3.1%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        1.4%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%