Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.9  17.2  18.6  17.2  16.7  15.9  16.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.6  41.5  33.5  24.4  14.6   5.8  -0.8  -5.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -14.0  -4.0   2.0   3.0 -15.0 -33.0 -42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.7  17.9  17.2  18.6  17.2  16.7  15.9  16.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%