Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  17.3  17.2  17.1  16.9  18.0  15.4  13.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.5  47.4  36.2  26.1  18.6  11.7   5.5   0.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -12.0 -12.0  -3.0 -12.0 -18.0 -26.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.6  17.3  17.2  17.1  16.9  18.0  15.4  13.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%