Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  16.2  15.2  16.7  18.1  15.1  11.7  13.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  44.4  36.1  27.2  20.4  14.3   8.8   5.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -23.0 -36.0 -20.0  -9.0 -35.0 -39.0 -37.0  U VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  16.2  15.2  16.7  18.1  15.1  11.7  13.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%