Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  15.0  15.3  17.7  15.9  12.8  12.6  15.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.6  39.3  31.5  24.4  16.7  12.0   9.8   7.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -18.0 -22.0 -14.0 -23.0 -29.0 -28.0 -35.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.4  15.0  15.3  17.7  15.9  12.8  12.6  15.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%