Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.8  16.5  15.8  14.1  16.9  17.8  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  35.0  26.7  20.5  14.8  10.7   9.7   6.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -9.0   0.0 -22.0 -24.0 -44.0 -54.0 -60.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.7  14.8  16.5  15.8  14.1  16.9  17.8  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%