Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  15.5  16.3  13.5  15.5  16.5  15.7  12.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.5  26.7  19.3  13.8  10.7   8.7   6.8   5.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -12.0 -36.0 -23.0 -25.0 -50.0 -46.0 -30.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.5  15.5  16.3  13.5  15.5  16.5  15.7  12.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.0%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%