Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.0  13.1  16.8  17.3  15.8  13.5  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.0  20.5  14.8  10.7   9.7   6.8   5.0   4.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -39.0 -43.0 -39.0 -52.0 -42.0  -5.0  -5.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.8  15.0  13.1  16.8  17.3  15.8  13.5  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        0.0%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%