Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  14.5  15.8  16.3  14.3  13.9  13.8  16.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.3  13.8  10.7   8.7   6.8   4.1   4.1   5.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -37.0 -44.0 -45.0 -39.0   4.0  14.0  -1.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.7  14.5  15.8  16.3  14.3  13.9  13.8  16.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%