Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112019 190906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  15.1  13.4  15.1  20.9  21.9  20.8  17.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         18.7  15.9  14.1  13.3  15.0  17.8  19.7  21.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -39.0 -28.0  -6.0   5.0 -19.0  -1.0   8.0  22.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  34.0  34.0  33.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.2  15.1  13.4  15.1  20.9  21.9  20.8  17.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%