Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  17.3  20.4  18.2  14.3  16.2  19.7  24.2  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  26.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  97.0  81.0  56.0  49.0  54.0  77.0  66.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  66.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.1  17.3  20.4  18.2  14.3  16.2  19.7  24.2  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       21.0%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        6.8%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        6.8%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       32.7%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       13.1%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       19.7%       18.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%        8.1%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.9%       20.1%       22.0%