Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    141.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.5  16.7  14.1  16.3  18.0  18.7  20.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  88.0  61.0  45.0  58.0  67.0  59.0  63.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  22.5  16.7  14.1  16.3  18.0  18.7  20.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       31.2%       20.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       14.7%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%       14.7%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       44.6%       26.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%       23.7%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h       19.5%       29.1%       24.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%       14.1%       10.9%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%       29.4%       26.5%