Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  16.9  13.1  15.0  16.9  16.8  18.8  20.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  20.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  62.0  57.0  83.0  96.0 112.0  97.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.4  16.9  13.1  15.0  16.9  16.8  18.8  20.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       17.2%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.4%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       27.4%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%       10.6%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       18.8%       18.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.7%        7.6%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       28.5%       21.1%       24.8%