Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  13.6  13.7  16.0  17.3  19.3  22.2  23.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  24.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  37.0  71.0  95.0 102.0  94.0  59.0  47.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.9  13.6  13.7  16.0  17.3  19.3  22.2  23.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       21.1%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        7.6%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        7.6%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.7%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       31.7%       19.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%       13.5%        8.6%
 55kt / 48h       16.2%       19.2%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        7.9%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h       24.6%       20.4%       22.5%