Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.3  21.4  21.3  23.9  22.6  23.9  20.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  19.0  22.0  24.0  28.0  31.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  72.0  99.0  82.0  80.0  79.0  42.0  19.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  16.3  21.4  21.3  23.9  22.6  23.9  20.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       24.1%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        9.5%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        9.5%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        3.0%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       32.2%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%       13.4%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       18.6%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        7.6%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       18.7%       20.0%       19.4%