Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    144.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  25.0  27.4  29.7  24.4  23.4  22.2  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  21.0  28.0  35.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0 100.0 107.0 133.0  90.0  91.0  63.0  21.0  N  F  F VF  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.3  25.0  27.4  29.7  24.4  23.4  22.2  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       14.8%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       21.9%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        7.0%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       12.9%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        4.9%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       19.4%       15.7%       17.5%