Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  34.7  33.5  29.6  21.8  19.3  24.8  28.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  24.0  27.0  28.0  27.0  34.0  43.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  87.0 106.0  87.0  63.0  91.0  28.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.2  34.7  33.5  29.6  21.8  19.3  24.8  28.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        5.6%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       31.0%       24.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%       16.3%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       16.3%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%        6.5%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       36.7%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       17.5%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%       17.4%       14.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        6.7%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%       10.6%        9.9%