Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122019 190906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  35.9  30.7  21.2  19.0  24.3  28.9  31.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  29.0  30.0  32.0  39.0  45.0  47.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  87.0  34.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.3  35.9  30.7  21.2  19.0  24.3  28.9  31.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       10.4%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        3.1%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       11.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        3.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        5.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.5%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        4.0%        5.5%