Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  11.2  14.5  16.4  18.1  15.1  15.7  15.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  14.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 125.1 127.3 125.1 125.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  52.0  63.0  74.0  72.0  41.0  35.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.6  11.2  14.5  16.4  18.1  15.1  15.7  15.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       38.2%       25.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       21.3%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       21.3%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        7.5%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       47.1%       29.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%       28.0%       17.2%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       24.1%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       12.7%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%       19.0%       13.9%