Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.3  13.7  18.9  19.8  17.2  17.2  17.7  18.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  15.0  11.0  10.0  10.0   8.0  11.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 129.6 127.3 129.6 127.3 127.3 125.1  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  60.0  63.0  86.0  43.0  21.0  40.0  33.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.3  13.7  18.9  19.8  17.2  17.2  17.7  18.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        6.6%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       34.5%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       18.1%       11.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       18.1%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        6.4%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       43.0%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%       24.4%       15.0%
 55kt / 48h       15.1%       21.0%       18.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%       10.6%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%       16.9%       12.1%