Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.3  18.3  17.4  18.8  19.6  18.4  15.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 124.6 117.9 115.7 113.6 109.4 105.5 101.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  87.0  83.0  45.0  32.0  26.0  16.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  16.3  18.3  17.4  18.8  19.6  18.4  15.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.2%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       22.3%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        9.9%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        9.9%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       22.9%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%       10.4%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        7.1%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        3.8%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        6.0%        4.2%