Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  18.1  15.5  16.3  15.2  14.0  10.2  14.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 117.9 113.6 109.4 107.4 101.6  98.0  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  53.0  57.0  41.0  39.0  49.0  23.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.9  18.1  15.5  16.3  15.2  14.0  10.2  14.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.4%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       11.1%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        3.7%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        2.0%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        3.3%        2.8%