Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  16.1  17.4  14.9  14.5  11.5  13.3  16.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 113.6 111.5 109.4 107.4 103.5  98.0  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  34.0  41.0  52.0  14.0   9.0  24.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.2  16.1  17.4  14.9  14.5  11.5  13.3  16.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.7%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        9.0%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        2.6%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        1.5%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%