Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  14.7  14.2  13.2   9.1  11.1  17.2  22.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 111.5 111.5 109.4 103.5  99.8  96.2  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  49.0  72.0  39.0  21.0  40.0  46.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.3  14.7  14.2  13.2   9.1  11.1  17.2  22.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       10.1%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.5%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       14.8%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        6.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        3.2%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        2.2%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%