Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    115.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  13.0  12.9   9.8  12.1  16.8  22.0  24.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 108.6 106.5 104.4 100.5  96.6  93.0  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  73.0  62.0  28.0  24.0  -1.0  15.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.2  13.0  12.9   9.8  12.1  16.8  22.0  24.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.7%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%       23.4%       16.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%       12.3%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       12.3%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       26.9%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%       15.0%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        4.6%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        3.4%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%