Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  12.4  11.8  15.4  18.6  22.6  25.6  24.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5  99.4  97.4  95.5  91.6  88.0  82.7  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  79.0  35.0  12.0  -3.0   2.0  -2.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.2  12.4  11.8  15.4  18.6  22.6  25.6  24.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        8.6%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       28.8%       21.7%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       18.3%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       18.3%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        5.7%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       27.2%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       16.6%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        3.3%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        2.9%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%