Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  13.0  16.3  20.8  24.6  25.6  25.1  23.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  89.4  87.4  83.5  79.8  76.2  72.7  69.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  66.0  47.0   7.0   2.0   5.0   0.0 -23.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  13.0  16.3  20.8  24.6  25.6  25.1  23.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.2%       20.0%       21.1%
 25kt / 24h       26.5%       38.5%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       30.3%       24.4%
 35kt / 24h       16.5%       30.3%       23.4%
 40kt / 24h       13.0%       11.8%       12.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       27.4%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.8%       17.2%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        3.2%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.6%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%