Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  21.5  26.9  28.6  24.8  21.5  19.0  19.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   6.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.7  75.7  69.4  65.5  61.6  59.8  58.0  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  48.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0 -11.0 -34.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.4  21.5  26.9  28.6  24.8  21.5  19.0  19.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.3%       25.2%       42.8%
 25kt / 24h       38.4%       26.3%       32.3%
 30kt / 24h       38.4%       20.5%       29.4%
 35kt / 24h       38.4%       20.5%       29.4%
 40kt / 24h       38.4%       10.9%       24.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       10.3%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%        4.7%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%