Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  24.5  29.9  27.0  25.5  20.2  18.5  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   6.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.9  55.7  51.5  49.4  47.4  45.5  43.5  41.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   7.0  -5.0   5.0 -16.0 -20.0  -3.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.5  24.5  29.9  27.0  25.5  20.2  18.5  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.0%       11.7%       26.3%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%        9.5%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%        5.9%       11.2%
 35kt / 24h       16.6%        5.9%       11.2%
 40kt / 24h       16.6%        2.1%        9.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%