Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  30.2  27.7  27.3  23.7  20.7  19.5  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.1  47.9  43.6  41.5  39.4  37.4  37.4  35.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -10.0  -5.0 -24.0 -40.0 -20.0   4.0  -2.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.9  30.2  27.7  27.3  23.7  20.7  19.5  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.2%        5.3%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        4.2%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%        2.2%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        2.2%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%