Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  28.1  26.0  21.7  19.7  19.1  18.9  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.9  33.6  31.5  29.4  29.4  27.4  25.5  25.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  -5.0 -27.0 -20.0 -17.0   1.0  -2.0  -4.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.1  28.1  26.0  21.7  19.7  19.1  18.9  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.1%        3.2%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        2.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%