Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.6  23.1  22.2  18.8  19.9  20.5  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  31.5  29.4  29.4  27.4  27.4  27.4  25.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -6.0 -24.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  26.6  23.1  22.2  18.8  19.9  20.5  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        1.1%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%