Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  25.2  23.1  20.7  21.6  24.6  20.3  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.5  34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  36.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -5.0  -2.0  20.0  -7.0   0.0  -3.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.9  25.2  23.1  20.7  21.6  24.6  20.3  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%