Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  25.8  25.6  26.4  27.9  25.2  19.0  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  46.5  46.5  46.5  48.6  48.6  48.6  50.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  17.0  22.0  -5.0   3.0   7.0   9.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.2  25.8  25.6  26.4  27.9  25.2  19.0  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%