Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  27.6  28.8  25.5  22.7  20.2  16.6  17.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  55.5  57.4  59.4  61.5  63.6  63.6  63.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -1.0 -17.0  -6.0   7.0 -18.0 -12.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.1  27.6  28.8  25.5  22.7  20.2  16.6  17.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%