Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  26.8  21.3  20.0  18.7  19.3  18.9  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.4  69.4  71.5  73.6  73.6  73.6  73.6  73.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -33.0 -16.0 -20.0  -9.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  60.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.4  26.8  21.3  20.0  18.7  19.3  18.9  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%