Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  21.0  18.6  18.0  18.3  17.5  16.2  16.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.4  74.4  76.5  78.6  78.6  78.6  76.5  74.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0  -8.0  -4.0   6.0   1.0   0.0 -14.0   5.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.6  21.0  18.6  18.0  18.3  17.5  16.2  16.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%