Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.9  18.3  19.9  18.3  15.8  14.8  14.4  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   7.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.6 100.7 102.9 105.1 102.9 102.9 100.7  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   7.0  11.0  -9.0   0.0   3.0  14.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.5  15.9  18.3  19.9  18.3  15.8  14.8  14.4  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%