Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  17.5  19.9  20.2  17.8  15.6  15.5  17.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 105.7 107.9 107.9 107.9 105.7 101.5  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  12.0 -16.0  -1.0   0.0  17.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.3  17.5  19.9  20.2  17.8  15.6  15.5  17.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        1.0%        1.2%