Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  19.0  19.4  17.5  16.2  14.9  16.0  18.2  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   9.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1 107.9 105.7 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -8.0  -4.0   5.0  18.0  23.0  27.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.7  19.0  19.4  17.5  16.2  14.9  16.0  18.2  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.0%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.5%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%