Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.5  15.8  14.3  16.2  14.9  14.7  11.9  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 112.0 109.6 109.6 107.3 105.1 102.9 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   0.0   2.0  20.0  45.0  35.0  30.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.4  18.5  15.8  14.3  16.2  14.9  14.7  11.9  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        7.0%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.2%       30.2%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       21.2%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       21.2%       13.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%        7.5%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%       26.6%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       13.9%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%       14.8%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        4.7%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%        9.3%        6.8%