Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132019 190918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  16.7  16.9  18.7  17.4  15.2  11.9  11.6  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  14.0  16.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 109.3 107.0 107.0 102.3  97.9  95.7  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   5.0  12.0  36.0  27.0  23.0  29.0  12.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  16.7  16.9  18.7  17.4  15.2  11.9  11.6  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%       13.9%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       22.2%       42.1%       32.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.1%       34.3%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.0%       34.3%       24.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.3%       15.3%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.2%       32.9%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       18.8%       13.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%       17.0%       13.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        5.5%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        8.3%        5.2%